Sample Harbour vs Sample Forest
Forecast stored 2026-10-27 20:00 MU · weights snapshot: form 15 · homeaway 15 · xg 20 · strength 15 · news 10 · tactical 10 · h2h 5 · external 5 · context 5
Final forecast
- Alternative forecast
- Draw
- Goals market
- Over 2.5 goals (54%)
- BTTS
- BTTS No (59%)
- Expected goals
- 2.20 – 0.63 (total 2.83)
Strong analytical confidence
Good coverage
Model probabilities (Poisson)
1X2 sums to 100.0%. Over/Under and BTTS come from the same score grid.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 simulations · seed 2009198176
Average total: 2.84 goals
- 2-0 14.1%2-0 14.3%
- 1-0 13.0%1-0 13.0%
- 3-0 10.7%3-0 10.5%
- 2-1 9.1%2-1 9.0%
- 1-1 7.9%1-1 8.2%
- 3-1 7.3%3-1 6.6%
Same expected goals, seeded from team names and date, so the run is reproducible.
Recent form
- Last 5
- WWLWD
- Scored / match
- 1.7
- Conceded / match
- 0.9
- Last 5
- LLDLW
- Scored / match
- 0.9
- Conceded / match
- 1.4
Home / away statistics and expected goals
- Scored at home
- 1.8
- Conceded at home
- 0.9
- xG for
- 1.7
- xGA
- 1
- Strength
- 70/100
- Scored away
- 0.9
- Conceded away
- 1.5
- xG for
- 0.9
- xGA
- 1.6
- Strength
- 55/100
Team news
Sample team news for demonstration.
Confirmed by an official or primary source. Absence severity: Sample Harbour 0, Sample Forest 1.
Tactical analysis
Sample tactical note: demonstration only.
Tactical edge 1 · rest days 7 vs 4 · H2H 4-1-0
Analytical explanation
The blended model expects Sample Harbour 2.20 – 0.63 Sample Forest (2.83 goals in total), built from 3 statistical model(s): Recent form, Home / away performance, Expected goals xG / xGA.
Poisson gives Sample Harbour 73.6%, draw 17.3%, Sample Forest 9.1%. The 10,000-run Monte Carlo (seed 2009198176) gives 74.2% / 16.9% / 9.0%, a largest gap of 0.6 points.
Team strength (Model F): shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +8.2% and Sample Forest by -7.6%.
Team news & availability: shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +3.0% and Sample Forest by -4.9%.
Tactical matchup: shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +4.1% and Sample Forest by -3.9%.
Head-to-head (Model E): shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +3.0% and Sample Forest by -3.0%.
External consensus (Model H): shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +3.6% and Sample Forest by -3.4%.
Context: rest & congestion: shifts Sample Harbour expected goals by +3.0% and Sample Forest by -3.0%.
External reference (Sample reference) points the same way as the model. It is a reference point only and carries 5% weight.
The most likely scoreline is 2-0, yet any single scoreline is rarely above 15% likely. Over 2.5 goals (54%) and BTTS No (59%) follow from the same goal expectations. This is a probability, not a guarantee.
Risk factors
- Football has high variance: one red card or deflection can overturn the most likely outcome.
Sources
- Sample dataset https://example.com/sample-data
- Sample news feed https://example.com/sample-news
Retrieved: 2026-10-27 12:00 MU · Sample records point to placeholder links.